The expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has brought China， Russia and India together for the first time into the same international organization. In such a context， the concept of the “strategic triad” of the three countries， which has been a heated debate since the Cold War years， again draws attention from the international community， since this triad will directly determine the development of the SCO through the power allocation and their relations in the organization. Furthermore， their interaction will influence the interaction models of the SCO members， the regions they are involved and even the whole world. Therefore， studying the interactions among these three countries will not only enrich existing researches on the Sino-Russian-Indian relations， but also help us predict the development of the SCO. Based on two basic variables— Sino-Indian relation， and a contrast between the Sino-Russian and Russian-Indian relations， this paper suggests that four interaction models may emerge in the SCO， namely， a blanced “strategic triad”， a Sino-Russian joint governance with India at the periphery， a rival-relation with Russia-India on one side and China-Pakistan on the other， and a Russia-dominated governance with India and China at the periphery. Expositions are presented in this paper of what these models are， how they operate and what spillover effects they will have. In addition， this paper analyzes preferences of SCO member states for these four models on the basis of their own interests， and provides support for predicting which model is more likely to be developed. In order to ensure the SCO’s steady operation and China’s interests in this organization after its expansion， we shall take the initiative to put forward items on the agenda when China acts as the rotating chairman of the SCO and in the years followed. Studies shall also be conducted as soon as possible on the feasibility of the negotiation mechanism for resolving conflicts among the member states. Besides， we shall make efforts to promote the integration of the SCO with cooperative mechanisms of other regional organizations， and to strengthen our cooperation with Russia within and beyond the SCO framework.
Key words:
Shanghai Cooperation Organization; expansion; China-Russia-India; interaction model; strategic triad